It’s not uncommon for players to overvalue their small pocket pairs in hopes of flopping a set and stacking their opponents. When things go to plan, however, it’s one of the best feelings in poker!
The hand we’ll be looking at today shows the power of small pairs, especially in position, and when there is enough money left to play for after the flop.
The setting is the Lodge Poker Club in Texas, with blinds set at $25/$50 with the $100 big blind straddle, and stacks of slightly over $28,000, so just under 300 big blinds effective.
Preflop Action
The game is 8-handed, and the action starts with the player in the lojack position opening to $300 with A♦J♠. Chris is next to act, and he elects to just call with A♥Q♥.
It folds to Alex in the small blind, who looks down at K♦9♦ and goes for a squeeze, making it $1,600.
Tito is in the big blind with 3♠3♦ and decides to cold call and see what develops. The straddle and the original raiser get out of the way, and Chris makes the call, so they proceed to the flop three-handed with $5,250 in the pot.
Preflop Play Analysis
The initial open with a hand as strong as AJ is certainly standard, and the 3x sizing is perfectly fine, although we often see bigger opens in these deep-stacked cash games. Going with three times the straddle keeps the pot size smaller and provides more maneuverability.
Chris has an interesting decision with his AQ suited. This is a hand that he can certainly 3-bet with some of the time, but with several players left to act behind him, he opts for a safer route and makes the call, which is perfectly fine.
Alex in the small blind has a pretty-looking hand, but this is the kind of hand that can get you in a lot of trouble, especially in a multi-way pot. So, his decision to 3-bet is perfectly reasonable. It makes it possible to win the pot right then and there or, at the very least, thin the field.
Folding is also acceptable, of course, but of the three options available to him, calling is probably the worst, even if it doesn’t seem that way. This is just one of those hands that are hard to play multi-way, especially completely out of position.
Tito has a small pocket pair, and if we’re talking proper poker strategy, his decision is very easy – he needs to fold. He’s not closing the action, and either of the two players left to act can raise again.
If he doesn’t flop a set, he’ll have to give up almost always, and when he does find his miracle card on the flop, he’ll still have to play out of position more often than not.
All that being said, he decides to call and try his luck, and, as we’ll see, it works out for him this time around.
The initial raiser gets out of the way, and with all the action happening, this is certainly the best option with AJ off-suit.
Finally, Chris has a decision once again, as every now and then he could go for a 4-bet with his hand. The safer and more standard approach, though, is to just call in position and see what develops on the flop, and that’s exactly what he does.
Flop Action
The flop comes K♣3♣2♠, and it is a gin for Tito, who flops the middle set while Alex improves as well, hitting a top pair.
Alex fires a small continuation bet of $1,400, Tito raises to $5,000, and Chris is done with it, having completely whiffed the flop. Alex calls Tito’s raise, and the pot gets up to $15,250 heading to the turn.
Flop Play Analysis
After taking an aggressive route before the flop and hitting the top pair, Alex opts to continue betting and chooses a small c-bet sizing, which is fairly standard against multiple opponents.
Sometimes, players will even choose to check in these spots to control the size of the pot and somewhat negate their positional disadvantage.
Tito absolutely smashed the flop, and on this particular texture, raising seems like the best play. There aren’t very many strong hands he can legitimately represent here, so his hand looks a lot like a flush draw, which means he can get value from a variety of hands.
For this reason, Alex certainly can’t fold to a single raise with a hand as strong as a top pair, even with a kicker of questionable quality. His best play is to call and see what happens on the turn.
Turn Action
The turn brings another deuce as it comes 2♥, making the runout K♣3♣2♠2♥. Alex plays in flow and checks it to Tito, who bets for $6,000.
Alex takes very little time before tossing in the calling chips, and the two proceed to the river with $27,250 in the pot.
Turn Play Analysis
The 2♥ on the turn may seem like a blank, but it is a fairly significant card. As mentioned, Tito’s value range on the flop is quite narrow, and with another deuce hitting the board, it gets even narrower.
If he was getting out of line with a small pocket pair before the flop, pocket treys are now the only legitimate hand that Alex has to be worried about. Of course, Tito could also have a hand like KQ or KJ, but his raise on the flop and continued aggression on the turn signal a hand stronger than one pair – or a bluff.
He certainly doesn’t have a hand like AK, as with so many interested parties before the flop, he’d always go for a re-raise with such strong holdings.
So, with all these considerations in mind, Alex has an easy check-call once again, especially facing a bet of about 40% of the pot.
River Action
The last card to hit the board is 9♣, making the final runout K♣3♣2♠2♥9♣. Alex checks once again, and Tito now moves all in for $15,610.
Alex has Tito just about covered and spends a few minutes going over his decision. Eventually, he decides he can’t let go of his improved two pair and makes the call, sending an almost $60k pot Tito’s way.
River Play Analysis
The 9♣ on the river is an interesting card, as it seemingly improves Alex’s hand. He now has the best possible two-pair combination.
That said, this card also completes the most obvious draw from the flop, so once Tito moves all in instead of checking the hand down, it is probably time to let it go.
Although Alex is getting a good price on the call, it’s hard to imagine Tito is doing this with a worse hand. If he somehow had a hand like KQ or KJ, would he really be turning it into a bluff once the flush comes in on a paired board?
With a hand that has so much showdown value, it just doesn’t seem likely.
If, on the other hand, he were bluffing with a flush draw all along, his draw came in on the river, and he’d certainly be more than happy to go for a value bet with a hand as strong as that as given the action and the board texture, he doesn’t have to worry about full houses.
It’s just one of those spots where the absolute strength of your hand improving on the river doesn’t mean much. In fact, it’s probably a much easier call with a single pair on a brick river – something like 7♥ or 8♦.
To sum it up, on this particular river, although it is just $15,000 to win about $45,000 in the middle, a fold seems like a superior play in the long run.
