Strategy

Mike X and Francisco Clash in a Six-Figure Pot on HCL

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January 28, 2025 · 5 minutes

mike x francisco hcl

The hand we’ll be analyzing today comes from a recent Hustler Casino Live stream that features interesting preflop action, complicating things on future streets.

Although the hand starts multi-way, two players in the focus are Mike X and Francisco, as they are the ones driving the action after the flop.

Stakes are $50/$100 with a $100 big blind ante, and Francisco is the effective stack, starting the hand with $46,750 in front of him.

Preflop Action

The action starts with the UTG+1 player raising to $300 with K6. Dylan is the next to act, and he opts to 3-bet with 109, making it $1,500 to go.

It folds to Jasper in the cutoff, who cold-calls with A3. On the button, Francisco looks down at AQ and, after a short think, opts for a cold call as well.

This entices Mike X in the big blind to call as well with K2. The original raiser follows suit, so they go to the flop five-handed, with $7,650 in the middle.

Flop Play Analysis

There are a few things to look into and consider with this preflop action. First of all, opening with K6 from an early position is not advisable, especially with deep stacks. It is a very tricky hand to play, and there is a very good chance you’ll face a 3-bet or, at the very least, have to play against multiple callers out of position.

Dylan’s hand is one of the best 3-bet candidates in this spot, and the PeakGTO solver actually suggests 3-betting here about 45% of the time. So, even though it may feel like a bit too wide against an early position raise, this is a strategically sound play.

francisco vs mike x preflop action

Jasper has no reason whatsoever to call with a weak off-suit ace. Even if you feel in the mood to gamble, this is not the type of hand that you want to play in a pot where there is a raise and re-raise in front of you. There are very few boards where you’ll feel comfortable.

Francisco has a strong hand, and this is the spot where he should be either folding or raising. The solver suggests both actions are fine, but doesn’t have any calls in this spot.

Cold-calling a 3-bet, even on the button, is almost never a good play. If you have a hand that’s strong enough to get involved, you should be doing so by 4-betting; otherwise, folding is the best course of action.

Mike in the big blind should certainly be folding, but with so much money in the pot, holding a suited king, and with just one player left to act after him, his optimistic call is somewhat understandable. Strategically speaking, though, it is a super-easy fold.

Finally, the original raiser absolutely has to call. He is closing the action and is getting insane pot odds. While opening with K6 was a mistake, now that the hand played out the way it did before the flop, folding would make no sense.

Flop Action

The flop comes AJ9, giving Francisco a top pair with a strong kicker and Mike a nut flush draw. However, it is Jasper, with his weak ace, who starts betting when it checks to him, firing for $3,000.

Francisco flat calls once again, and Mike now goes for a check-raise, making it $13,000. This gets rid of everyone but Francisco, who makes the call, so they go to the turn heads-up with $36,650 in the pot.

Flop Play Analysis

This situation shows exactly why playing weak aces in multi-way raised pots is ill-advised. Once the action checks to Jasper, he feels he needs to bet with his top pair, but, at the same time, this bet is unlikely to get through on this board texture.

That said, a small bet with the intention to give up to any resistance may be the simplest way to navigate this scenario.

Francisco is in a bit of a strange spot. By choosing to just call before the flop, he hasn’t really defined his opponents’ ranges. His hand is certainly too strong to fold to a single bet, but is it strong enough to raise with four other players in the pot?

mike x vs francisco flop play
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Given two options, though, he is probably better served by raising and forcing other players to only continue with real poker hands. If he gets jammed on, he can reevaluate, but given the fact that the original raiser and the 3-bettor opted to check, this isn’t very likely.

Mike X has a nut flush draw and a backdoor straight draw, and this is the kind of hand that you can always play aggressively. None of the other players have shown too much strength, so going after the pot with a hand that will always have a fair bit of equity can’t be bad.

If you’ll play a hand like K2 in a 3-bet pot out of position, this is one of the best flops you could ask for, so you might as well play it aggressively.

When everybody else folds, Francisco once again needs to decide how much he likes his AQ. Given the preflop action, Mike is unlikely to have a strong hand here, as he’d certainly be 3-betting pocket aces and pocket jacks, and maybe even some suited AJ hands.

So, other than pocket 9s and a few combos of AJ, his range on this board certainly gravitates more toward draws, which means that calling and reevaluating on the turn is the right play.

Turn Action

The turn is the 6, making the board AJ96, and Mike X continues his story from the flop, moving all in. Francisco makes the call, and the pot grows to $101,150.

They agree to run it twice, but both rivers brick out, as they come J and 10. So Francisco scoops the six-figure pot.

Turn Play Analysis

Once the turn bricks out, Francisco has a fairly easy call, as he only has about a pot-sized bet left in his stack. It would make no sense to call the flop and fold on the 6 turn.

As for Mike’s play, once he raises the flop and the board doesn’t pair, he pretty much has to bluff-shove. His opponent could still be on a draw of some sort (although less likely with him holding two diamonds), and the pot has grown to the point where check-folding isn’t an option.

This is an interesting hand that shows perhaps more than anything else that preflop hand selection matters a lot, and once that part goes out of window, some strange things start to happen.

Article by
Ivan played poker professionally for over five years but finally decided to merge his passion for writing with poker and became one of the leading writers in this industry. You can connect with Ivan via his LinkedIn profile and follow him on Twitter.

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