The HCL Million Dollar Game is just one session deep, with two more on the horizon, and it’s already given us a fair few hands worth dissecting.
One that has certainly stolen the spotlight saw none other than Alan Keating going for a huge bluff against two opponents, one of them being Peter. The two have tangoed before and Alan came out ahead after calling Peter’s bluff in an impossible spot.
This time around, stakes are even higher, as the game in question is $1k/$1k with $2k big blind ante, and Keating is the effective stack with $869,000 in front of him, so it is an extremely deep game.
Preflop Action
The hand begins with Peter picking up J♥J♣ under the gun and raising to $6,000. Keating makes the call in the cutoff with Q♠10♦.
Jack in the small blind wakes up with Q♥Q♦ and 3-bets to $26,000. The big blind folds, and both Peter and Alan make the call, creating the pot of $81,000 to kick things off.
Preflop Play Analysis
Peter picks up a premium starting hand and opens the action, so not much to analyze there. Keating’s call is somewhat suspicious, though, as even though Peter is a loose player, he’s opening from the first position, and QTo is the kind of hand that can get you in a lot of trouble on many flops.
Jack finds himself in the perfect squeezing opportunity with an actual hand, and he picks a very solid sizing of $26k. This is just over four times the initial raise, and with one caller already in the mix, anything between $25,000 and $30,000 seems reasonable.
Peter’s hand is certainly too strong to fold to a small blind squeeze. Some of the time, he can go for a 4-bet, especially with Keating still in the pot, but calling is perfectly reasonable.
Alan is closing the action and getting very good pot odds, and since he has a position on both opponents, he pretty much has to call now and see what develops.
Flop Play
The flop comes 7♦6♦4♠, which doesn’t improve any of the three players in the pot. Jack fires a continuation bet of $35,000, and Peter promptly calls.
Keating misses completely, but this doesn’t stop him from going after the pot, and he raises to $180,000. After some deliberation, Jack makes the call, and Peter follows suit.
So, they proceed to the turn, still three-handed, with $621,000 now in the middle.
Flop Play Analysis
The low and connected flop isn’t great for the 3-bettors range, but neither of his opponents should be connecting with this board too much, either, so Jack’s continuation bet is certainly a standard play here.
For Peter, not much has changed. He still has a solid hand, the board came with all under-cards, so he has to call at least once.
Keating missed pretty much as hard as possible, and at this point, he should just be giving up. It’s not only that Jack continued betting on the flop but Peter called as well, so it’s clear that at least one of them has a solid hand.
Granted, we can’t analyze this situation based on GTO preflop ranges as Alan can have a variety of hands in this spot – all sorts of suited connectors and all three pocket pairs that turned into a set.
Knowing this, his line is not that unbelievable, but against two players and with pretty much zero actual equity, it feels too ambitious.
Jack is in a tough spot as it’s not only Keating he has to worry about. It’s possible that Peter decided to slowplay a monster of some kind, as, once again, Peter’s UTG raising range will be wider than that of most players. Jack eventually calls, but no one could blame him for folding, either.
Facing so much action, Peter should probably be giving up. Given the preflop action, once Jack calls Alan’s raise, his range will contain a lot of pocket aces, kings, and queens, and maybe hands like A♦K♦, A♦Q♦, and A♦J♦.
Pocket jacks are doing poorly against this range, and that’s without even thinking about what Keating could have. Of course, Peter is not the one to give up easily, so despite all these concerns, he makes the call.
Turn Action
The turn is the 2♠, making the board 7♦6♦4♠2♠. Other than bringing a second flush drawdraw, this card is a complete blank.
The action checks through on this street, so nothing changes going to the river. It is still three-handed, with $620k in the middle.
Turn Play Analysis
After Alan’s big flop raise, Jack and Peter have nothing else to do but check. What’s strange is that Keating decides to check as well, although he knows he has zero actual outs.
By checking on this street, Keating is pretty much capping his range to a draw of some sort. It is a wet board and both of his opponents called. If he has a strong hand like a straight or a set, he certainly doesn’t want to check and let them see the free river.
River Action
The river is the A♦, finishing the runout of 7♦6♦4♠2♠A♦. This is a scare card, as it completes the front-door flush draw.
Once again, Jack and Peter check to Alan who now decides to make his move and shoves all in for $663,000, putting his opponents deep into the tank.
After a long think, Jack finally mucks his queens and it’s down to Peter and his pocket jacks. Peter takes his time as well but eventually tosses in the calling chips to drag in the pot of almost $2,000,000!
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River Play Analysis
After both of his opponents check, Keating changes his mind and decides to go after the pot. The A♦ river is certainly a scary one, but Alan’s story isn’t exactly airtight.
The way he played the previous streets, he could certainly be on a flush draw, but he is most likely to take this line with a nut flush draw. Once that ace hits, that’s no longer a possibility, so perhaps this play would work better on a different diamond.
Regardless, Jack has to fold his queens as he still has a player to act behind him, so there is really nothing he can do.
Peter should be folding as well, even if Keating’s story has a couple of holes in it. His pair of jacks isn’t even that good of a bluff catcher at this point.
But maybe that earlier hand against Alan was still in his mind, and he was looking to even the score with a hero call of his own, in which case he got exactly what he wanted.
