Although we usually look at cash game hands for these hand breakdowns, today’s analysis will be a bit different. In this article, we’ll focus on a hand that took place just a couple of days ago on a stone bubble of the $250,000 WSOP High Roller event.
Blinds are 100,000/200,000 with a 200,000 big blind ante, and the table is six-handed at the moment. There are five players at another table, and the tournament is just one elimination away from everyone else being in the money.
Three players involved in this hand are David Peters in the big blind (8.5M behind), Martin Kabrhel (8.4M), and Daniel Negreanu, starting with 6.7M.
Preflop Action
The hand starts with Martin Kabrhel min-raising from UTG with 10♥8♥, making it 400,000 to go. Daniel Negreanu looks down at A♦J♦ in the cutoff and makes the call.
It folds to David Peters in the big blind, who finds A♠J♣ and opts for a call as well, bringing the pot to 1.5 million in chips.
Preflop Play Analysis
The preflop play in this hand is quite interesting because the bubble is looming. Kabrhel’s open from UGT is certainly on the wider side, given stack depths and circumstances. On the other hand, he understands that it will really take a preflop monster for someone to play back at him.
Negreanu confirms this by flat calling with suited Ace-Jack, a hand that he would certainly 3-bet in position at least some of the time. However, on the stone bubble, he takes a more conservative route, and he may also think Kabrhel’s opening range from the first position is pretty strong.
Finally, Peters has a hand that makes a decent squeeze candidate. But, he, too, opts for a route with less variance, calling to see the flop and keeping the pot small.
Flop Action
The flop comes J♠8♠8♦, giving everyone a piece, but Kabrhel flops the best with his trip tens. After Peters checks, Martin c-bets for the minimum of 200,000.
Negreanu makes the call with his top pair before Peter bumps it up to 750,000. Kabrhel clicks it back to 1,425,000, which gets rid of Negreanu, while Peters makes the call, and the pot grows to 4.5 million.
Flop Play Analysis
Martin Kabrhel finds one of the best flops he could look for his specific hand. With such a strong hand, he opts for a super-small continuation bet, wanting to keep their opponents around with pretty much their entire ranges.
In a heads-up pot, Daniel could consider raising here, but with Peters still to act behind him, he’s happy to make the call in position and see what develops.
Back to Peters, who has a pretty strong hand in top-pair, top-kicker, and given the fact that neither of his opponents showed too much strength, he decides to raise. It is a good play to extract some value from weaker hands, define things a bit more, and probably get rid of at least one player.
For Kabrhel, things are developing just as he’d want them to. With Peters reopening the betting action, he can now come over the top, and he does so with a min-raise. Martin knows that if Peters has a hand like the one he has, he’ll struggle to find a fold facing this tiny of a raise.
Daniel has had enough and gets out of the way, which is by far the best option in this situation. Peters, as expected, makes the call. He may not be thrilled about it, but with such good pot odds and holding the Ace of Spades, David certainly can’t fold.
Turn Action
The turn comes the 3♠, making the board J♠8♠8♦3♠ and bringing in potential flushes. Peters starts by checking, and Kabrhel follows suit. No additional chips go into the middle on this street.
Turn Play Analysis
Spades are certainly not what Martin wanted to see on the turn, as some flush draws are certainly in Peters’ range. When his opponent checks, Kabrhel decides to check back in order to protect his hand and avoid facing an unpleasant check-raise.
With David Peters holding that ace of spades, a turn check-raise is certainly an option here, and there are bubble dynamics at play as well, so Martin’s decision makes sense.
River Action
The board completes with the 9♣ for the full runout of J♠8♠8♦3♠9♣. Peters checks for one last time, passing the action to Kabrhel.
Martin now decides to go for some value and fires a bet of 2,000,000. Peters takes a few moments before announcing all-in. He has Kabrhel covered, so if Martin calls and loses, he’ll be out of the tournament, and he won’t make any money.
Kabrhel gives it some thought, but eventually, he can’t find the call, and he mucks his hand while Peters rakes in a very important pot.
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River Play Analysis
When Peters checks on the river, Kabrhel feels like he needs to go for value, and he’s not wrong. There are many hands that his opponent could have that don’t necessarily want to bet but that are capable of calling the bet.
After analyzing the action, Peters realizes that his pair of jacks is probably not good enough to win at showdown, but he also figures that Martin doesn’t have a super strong hand. He is holding the key blocker to the nut flush, and he is also blocking some potential full houses with his jack.
So, he has the perfect hand to bluff with at the perfect opportunity. If Kabrhel’s stack is bigger, perhaps Peters doesn’t go for it, but this way, he can put the maximum pressure on his opponent, asking him if he’s willing to risk bubbling in this spot.
Martin certainly knows that Peters is capable of bluffing in this spot. However, his hands are somewhat tied. It is a high-pressure ICM spot, and in this particular instance, he simply can’t call with a hand that may be strong in absolute terms but is completely crushed by David’s entire value range.
