Flopping a set is one of the best feelings in poker, but winning a huge pot with a flopped set isn’t always easy. And when you have a bottom set on a monotone board against an aggressive opponent, things can quickly go south.
This is exactly the scenario Mariano faced during one of his appearances on the Hustler Casino Live stream. After flopping the bottom set on an all-hearts board, he got in a river spot where his hand was reduced to nothing but a bluff catcher.
The game in question was $25/$50 with a $100 straddle and $50 big blind ante. There is a hijack straddle in play here as well, which explains a big preflop raise. Mariano had $148,000 in front of him to start the hand, so once again, it was super-deep stakes.
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Preflop Action
The action starts with a player named Henry opening to $2,000 with A♦Q♦. Mariano makes the call with 3♠3♣ and Denis, who put in the $500 straddle, decides to defend with K♥7♦.
The pot is $6,200 and they proceed to the flop three-handed.
Preflop Play Analysis
This hand is a bit hard to break down before the flop as there is a lot of action happening before the cards are dealt.
There is a $500 straddle in the hijack, which explains a big preflop raise to $2,000. With all the money already in the pot, Henry making it $2,000 with his AQ makes sense.
Mariano’s call with a small pocket pair is fine as well. There is plenty to play for after the flop as Henry also has over $100k in front of him, so set mining is perfectly reasonable here.
Denis has a pretty weak hand and he’s probably better off just letting go. At the same time, he is getting great immediate pot odds, so it’s hard to fault him for making a call.
Flop Action
The flop comes A♥8♥3♥, promising some action. Mariano flops the bottom set, while Denis has the nut flush draw.
Henry fires a continuation bet of $2,500. Mariano makes the call, and Denis does the same. So, all three players proceed to the turn with $13,700 in the pot.
Flop Play Analysis
Henry has a strong top pair, and even though he is up against two opponents, his decision to fire a small continuation bet makes sense. This should help him define the hand better and get rid of hands that don’t connect with the board.
Mariano can certainly go both ways. Calling and raising are both fine, and raising would make it harder for Denis to hang around if he has some kind of a marginal hand. At the same time, calling disguises the strength of his hand and allows him to start building the pot on safe turns.
Denis has the biggest decision on his hands. With a key card in his hand, he can certainly go for a big raise, knowing that it’s impossible for his opponents to have the nuts or a draw to the nut flush.
On the other hand, he can also call, like he did, and wait to see what develops on future streets. If the board doesn’t pair, he can always put his blocker to good use and put his opponents to the ultimate test.
Turn Action
The turn brings the 5♣, making the board A♥8♥3♥5♣, Henry decides to slow down and checks. Mariano now takes the betting lead and fires for $5,500 with his set.
Denis goes for a raise now and makes it $20,000. Henry gets out of the way, and Mariano makes the call, bringing the pot to $53,700.
Turn Play Analysis
The 5♣ is a complete blank in this situation as this card shouldn’t help any of the players. After getting called in two spots, Henry checks with his top pair, and given the board texture and the action, this is a very reasonable decision.
Against just one player, he could still be ahead, but against two, if he bets again, he’s probably not getting called by worse.
Mariano has a strong but vulnerable hand and there are quite a few cards he doesn’t want to see on the river. So, he bets to protect his equity but goes with a relatively small sizing. This is because the small bet accomplishes the same goal as a bigger one, while keeping the pot size manageable.
Since the board hasn’t changed at all, Denis can definitely raise here and represent the nuts holding the key blocker in the K♥. He knows that it’s virtually impossible for his opponents to do anything but call, so he can take a free shot at this pot.
For Henry, this is an easy fold now, as his top pair is never good here. Mariano can’t fold a set to a single raise, so his only option is to call, see the river, and take it from there.
River Action
The river is the 6♠, so the board runs out A♥8♥3♥5♣6♠. Mariano checks and Denis moves all in, betting $130,850 into the pot of $54k.
Facing this huge overbet, Mariano takes a long time trying to figure out what to do, but eventually releases his hand, forfeiting a huge pot.
River Play Analysis
The river card doesn’t change anything for Mariano’s hand. Since the board did not pair, he is in the same exact spot he was on the turn, so he checks to his opponent.
Denis realizes that Mariano probably has a strong hand, so he has to put the maximum pressure if he wants to win the pot, and he has the perfect hand to do it with.
By making this massive overbet, he is saying he has the absolute nuts or pretty much nothing at all. It’s up to Mariano to decide which.
Without the benefit of seeing the hole cards, this is a really tough call. Although a set is a strong hand in absolute terms, here, it is just a bluff catcher. Denis is never doing this with a hand like two pair.
In the end, he decides to fold, which is a wrong decision in this particular instance, but in the long run, this is probably a good fold. Given the way this hand played out, his opponent will often show up with the nuts, and he doesn’t have that much money invested in the pot.
Against an aggressive opponent who is capable of moves like this, there will be better spots to pick off their bluff. So, despite being wrong in this particular instance, I’d say Mariano made a good and correct laydown.
