Nik Airball has certainly earned his nickname many times over but every now and again, he likes to remind the world of his playing style.
This is exactly what happened during his latest appearance on the Poker at the Lodge live stream, where Airball came ready to play. Unfortunately, due to a mix of bad timing and some unlucky runouts, things didn’t quite work out.
The hand we’ll be looking at today is a combination of all these things wrapped around an opponent who doesn’t like to fold.
Stakes are $200/$400, with a $400 big blind ante, and Nik Airball is the effective stack with just under $110,000 to start the hand.
Preflop Action
The action starts with Nik Airball in the cutoff opening to $3,000 with 7♣3♠. Taras is next to act on the button, and he looks down at A♠A♥ and makes it $9,000.
Blinds get out of the way, and it’s back to Nik. He decides to 4-bet, making it $27,000. Taras makes the call, and before any community cards are dealt, the pot stands at $55,000.
Preflop Play Analysis
You don’t need to be a poker expert to know that 7-3 off-suit is nowhere to be found on the preflop opening chart for the cutoff (or any position, really).
Nik is clearly looking to get some action going, but this is not a hand to do it with. More often than not, opening these types of hands will get you in trouble.
Taras has an easy 3-bet with pocket aces. He is facing a raise from an active opponent and has two players to act behind him, so he doesn’t want this hand to go four ways. Making it 3x the original open is also a nice size in position, allowing the raiser to stick around.
Faced with a 3-bet from an in-position player, Airball should be folding here. But, of the three options he has, calling is certainly the worst one. He goes for the third, though, 4-betting to $27,000.
Taras has a reputation as an active player, so if there is anyone you could 4-bet light, it’s him. However, once again, this is not the hand to do it with. If he doesn’t fold, you’ll be playing the entire hand out of position and with one of the worst starting hands in all of poker.
After facing Nik’s 4-bet, calling is probably the best option for Taras. This keeps all Airball’s bluffs in the hand, and the stack-to-pot ratio is such that it shouldn’t be hard to get chips in by the river.
Flop Action
The flop comes 10♣9♥6♠, giving Airball a gutshot. He continues with a very small bet of $10,000.
Taras wastes very little time before tossing in the calling chips, and the pot grows slightly, increasing to $75,000.
Flop Play Analysis
The flop is perhaps better than what Nik could hope for, as it actually gives him some outs. His continuation bet is very small, but it makes sense, exactly because of the SPR.
Taras could consider jamming here to protect his hand, but he decides to stick to the original plan and give his opponent some more rope. Having 4-bet before the flop, Airball shouldn’t connect with this particular flop often at all, and Taras knows this.
Turn Action
The 7♠ appears on the turn, making the board 10♣9♥6♠7♠. Nik Airball slows down and checks.
Taras follows suit and checks behind, so they proceed to the final card with no changes to the pot size.
Turn Play Analysis
The 7♠ is an interesting card. It actually improves Nik’s hand to a pair, giving him a few more outs against big pocket pairs. It also puts a four-liner to a straight on the board, which naturally slows down the action.
Nik can’t really represent a strong hand here after 4-betting before the flop. In theory, this card should be slightly better for Taras, although all the preflop action suggests that neither player should find this card or this runout particularly favorable.
River Action
The last card off the deck is Q♦ for the final runout of 10♣9♥6♠7♠Q♦. Nik Airball spends very little time before moving all in for $72,300.
Taras is in a tough spot and he takes a while to make up his mind. Eventually, though, he decides to make the call, and his pocket aces are enough to win him a big $220k pot.
–
River Play Analysis
The river doesn’t help Airball, and he is aware that his pair of sevens is likely not good enough to win here. So, he decides to put the maximum pressure on his opponent and moves all in for what’s right around the pot-sized bet.
The problem with this play is that it’s hard for Nik to credibly represent an eight for a turned straight. He could have a hand like pocket queens that go for value after rivering a set since it’s very hard for his opponent to have an eight.
On the other hand, Nik Airball does have a reputation as a very loose player, and even in a 4-bet pot, his range is quite wide (as shown in this very hand). So, Taras has to keep that in mind as well, as it’s certainly not beyond his opponent to have a straight here.
It’s certainly not an easy decision, but having a good bluff catcher against an opponent who you know is capable of pulling a big bluff can’t be far off the mark.
