The recently concluded HCL Million Dollar Game produced an abundance of big pots and interesting hands to analyze. Despite massive stakes, players were not afraid to put their chips to work and turn up the heat, creating some high-pressure situations.
The hand we’ll look into today involves a player who earned his nickname by playing this super-aggressive and no-punches-pulled style, Nik Airball himself. His opponent is Brandon Steven.
Stakes are $500/$1,000 with a $2,000 big blind ante, and Brandon is the effective stack, starting the hand with $657,000 in front of him.
Preflop Action
The hand begins with Stanley raising to $10,000 from UTG with K♦6♦ out of the stack of $1.5 million.
Nik Airball 3-bets to $30,000 from the hijack position with 10♥9♥. The action folds to Brandon in the big blind, who looks down at K♥J♦ and goes for a 4-bet of $107,000.
This clears the field as Nik is the only player to make the call, so they proceed to the flop heads-up, with $224,000 in the middle.
Preflop Play Analysis
Stanley’s open from the first position with a small suited king is certainly not a GTO-recommended move, but the stacks are deep and Stanley is an action player, so he feels like trying his luck.
Airball has a hand that he can call or 3-bet with. Both options are reasonable, and since he knows his opponent’s style, he’d prefer to isolate him and play him one-on-one in position with a hand that has a lot of potential.
Brandon in the big blind can either fold or 3-bet. He certainly doesn’t want to cold-call with a hand like KJo. Folding is the default option here, but Steven clearly knows his opponents and that they both could be pretty light in this spot.
So, with that in mind, his 4-bet makes more sense, even though it still feels a bit on the lighter side and with a hand that can put you in some really tough spots.
Stanley gets out of the way, facing all the action, and Airball has an easy call with T9s, playing in position and with plenty of money still behind.
Flop Action
The flop comes 3♥2♥2♠, which doesn’t help Brandon’s hand at all, but it does give Nik Airball a flush draw.
Steven fires a continuation bet of $77,000, and Nik makes a quick call with his draw and two overs, so they proceed to the turn with the pot ballooning to $378,000.
Flop Play Analysis
Although the small flop doesn’t help Steven’s particular hand, this board is actually great for his preflop 4-betting range. He has all the strong overpairs and the strongest of ace-highs, and the flop is unlikely to have helped his opponent.
A continuation bet here is super standard, and there is no need to go big. There are so many hands that Nik simply won’t be able to continue with even facing a one-third pot bet.
As it happens, though, Airball has a flush draw and two potentially live cards, so he has an easy call in position.
Turn Action
The turn comes the K♣, making the board 3♥2♥2♠K♣, improving Brandon’s hand to a top pair. He bets again, this time making it $187,000.
Airball takes very little time before announcing an all-in, making it an additional $290,000 for Steven to call.
Brandon goes back and forth on his decision but eventually decides he’s getting too good of a price and makes the call. The river bricks out, as it comes the 5♠, and Brandon Steven rakes in the pot of over $1.3 million!
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Turn Play Analysis
Once Nik calls the flop, Brandon can assume that his opponent has connected in some way with the board. Considering the preflop action, a flush draw is the most likely scenario, but he could also have pocket pairs like TT, JJ, and QQ.
So, this is not the time to slow down. There is no reason to give your opponent a chance to catch a card for free, and the half-pot bet is a good way to protect your equity and get value from drawing hands if your opponent wants to continue.
Instead of calling or folding, though, Airball decides to move all in, and this is a really interesting move.
On the surface, Steven is getting such good odds that this is an easy call with a top pair. However, he knows that Nik is aware of the fact, so he is almost certain that his King-Jack is no good. Why would his opponent shove, knowing that he’s always getting called?
This, combined with his flush draw equity, makes Airball’s move a pretty advanced play. If Steven had more money behind, something like $500k, his bluff could have worked. However, having to call under $300k to win $1.3 million, the pot odds are simply too good, especially against an aggressive player who is capable of pulling a sick bluff.
