Creative and crazy bluffs are always fun to watch, but they are often a bad idea for the player doing the bluffing, as they end up costing them a lot of money.
A very recent example of such a situation comes to us from the Hustler Casino Live stream, in a hand featuring popular poker vlogger Mariano and another HCL regular known as Pipi.
The game in question is $25/$50 with a $100 straddle active, but all players are extremely deep, as is usually the case in these games. Pipi is the effective stack, starting with $121k in front of him.
Preflop Action
The action begins with Pipi raising from the cutoff, making it $300 to go with 2♠3♠. Dr. P makes the call on the button with 5♥3♥.
Blinds get out of the way, so it’s down to Mariano in the straddle. He looks down at J♠6♣ and tosses in the extra $200 to make the call.
So, they go to the flop three-handed, with $1,025 in the middle.
Preflop Play Analysis
Even though the game is playing very deep, opening with the nut low hand is never recommended, especially in a game where the odds of stealing blinds before the flop are very slim. So, Pipi’s troubles in this hand start when he decides to raise with 2-3.
Dr P’s call on the button is fine, as even in the GTO world, this hand is calling some of the time. He has the absolute position, and it’s the kind of game where flopping a big hand can really pay off, so there is nothing wrong with trying to see the flop.
Mariano’s hand is pretty much as bad as they get, but he’s getting insane pot odds, and he is closing the action, so you can justify calling with almost any two cards to see the flop. You just need to be confident in your postflop abilities so that you don’t end up losing heaps when you flop just a weak top pair or something similar.
Flop Action
The flop comes J♥J♦6♠, giving Mariano the nuts. Everybody else missed completely, so it doesn’t look like this hand will amount to much.
Mariano checks, and Pipi fires a small continuation bet of $300. Dr. P gets out of the way, and it’s back to Mariano, who now makes it $1,600.
Pipi isn’t ready to give up. He goes for a 3-bet, making it $6,300. Mariano considers his options and decides to just call, bringing the pot to $13,625.
Flop Play Analysis
After Mariano checks, taking a small stab on a paired board is perfectly fine, and that’s exactly what Pipi does with his $300 continuation bet.
Mariano flopped a monster, but the pot is small, and the stacks are deep, so he needs to start putting some money into the middle. Some of the time, his opponent will just fold, but that’s the risk you have to be willing to take if you want to win some massive pots.
Pipi has the easiest fold in the world. While it is possible that Mariano is bluffing in this spot, Pipi’s hand is a really bad bluffing candidate. The best he can hope for is to pick up a weak flush draw on the turn. Instead, he decides to enter some leveling wars and goes for a 3-bet.
At this point, Pipi is representing a fairly narrow range consisting of J-X combos, pocket 6s, and bluffs. Mariano is holding blockers to both combos, making it much likelier Pipi is just bluffing.
For this reason, he lands on a call, giving his opponent some more rope. If Pipi does somehow have a strong hand, more money will be going into the pot anyway.
Turn Action
The turn is the 7♠, making the board J♥J♦6♠7♠. Mariano checks again, and Pipi now fires an overbet of $18,000.
Mariano takes a few moments again before making the call, bringing the pot to $49.625, heading to the final street of action.
Turn Play Analysis
With Pipi determined to bluff in this hand, he’s picked up one of the best cards in the deck to continue blasting. Since he doesn’t know Mariano holds a full house, he now thinks his hand has some equity with spade outs.
Over-betting the turn makes some sense for the story he’s telling, representing a strong jack or pocket sixes. However, once his flop 3-bet gets called, perhaps it’s time to dial back and think about what hands his opponent might be holding.
Did Mariano really call the flop re-raise on a paired board with a random ace-high out of position? If he had a decent pocket pair, he’d probably raise before the flop, so those hands aren’t likely, either.
It seems likely Mariano has a strong hand in this spot, and, having picked up some equity, maybe this is a decent spot for Pipi to check back, see the river, and try to realize that equity.
As for Mariano, his hand is no longer technically the nuts, but there is exactly one combo of J-7 remaining, so he has very little to worry about at this point. Like on the flop, his best play is to call and let his opponent do the bidding for him.
River Action
The river is the A♠ for the final runout of J♥J♦6♠7♠A♠. Pipi ends up making his flush, so after Mariano checks to him, he fires out for $52,000.
Mariano makes a snap call, clearly having made up his mind before his opponent acted, and rakes in the pot of just under $154,000.
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River Play Analysis
After all the bluffing, Pipi finally gets there on the river. The way this hand played out, he is convinced his backdoor flush is the best hand, so he goes for another massive bet.
It’s really hard to say if this is the correct play on this specific street. His hand is certainly well concealed, so he can get called by combos containing a lone jack. Mariano will certainly have some jack combos that he plays this way, like KJ, QJ, and JT.
However, Pipi’s line looks so strong that Mariano doesn’t even consider raising on the river to try and get Pipi’s last $44k. Perhaps he does it on a different, smaller card, but with the line he took, his opponent can certainly have A-J.
Some will say that this is a nitty play, but I don’t think anyone can accuse Mariano of being a nit. The way the hand played out, his opponent either has an absolute monster (as hard as that may seem) or a pure bluff.
It just so happened that Pipi backed into a hand that was strong enough to likely call off the river shove, but Mariano's reasoning here was spot on.
