Sick Poker Hand: Set of Aces Faces a Huge River Shove

There are a few better feelings in poker than getting some action with your pocket aces and then flopping a set on a very safe board. It’s one of those situations where your only goal is to try and get as much money in the middle as possible without scaring away your opponent.

But, things can get complicated real fast in poker even on the safest of boards, and you find yourself facing a huge river shove with the second nuts, wondering if your opponent really caught a miracle, or if they are just pulling a massive bluff.

A hand that took place at the Lodge recently perfectly shows this very scenario. The stakes are $50/$100, with $200 straddle. Check it out below in our free hand replayer and keep reading for our analysis.

Preflop Action

The action begins with Chris calling $200 from the lowjack position with 4♠5♠, sitting with a stack of $47,000, so playing extremely deep.

After the cutoff player makes a call as well with 7♠6♥, Yoochan wakes up on the button with A♥A♦, and starting with the stack of $53,000, he makes it an even $1,000.

Both limpers make the call and they proceed to the flop three-handed with $3,450 in the middle.

Preflop Play Analysis

Given the fact this game plays extremely deep, Chris certainly wants to play suited connectors, but he should be raising and taking control of the pot instead of limping.

The same goes for T-1000, the hijack player, although small offsuit connectors aren’t the type of a hand you really want to play in very deep stack scenarios. These hands can get you in a lot of trouble.

With pocket aces, Yoochan will be raising 100% on the button, and he makes it five times the straddle with two callers already in there. It probably makes sense to go a bit bigger, maybe even $1,500, but since he has the absolute position in the hand, he feels more confident and wants to keep at least one player around.

For the price he’s getting, Chris certainly wants to see the flop with his hand, so it’s an easy call with heaps of money behind to play for. For T-1000, closing the action and getting great pot odds, folding at this stage doesn’t make much sense, so he proceeds to make the call as well.

Flop Action

The flop comes A♠8♣2♦, giving Yoochan the top set and Chris a gutshot straight draw. The action checks to Yoochan, who bets out small for $600. Chris is the only one to make the call, bringing the pot to $4,650.

Flop Play Analysis

Yoochan gets the dream flop, hitting a set of aces on an extremely dry board. When his opponents check to him, he continues with a very small bet, realizing that they have likely not connected with the board very well.

Chris makes the call with his gutshot and backdoor spades, which makes sense facing such a small bet. With a hand like his, he might even consider a check-raise bluff, but given the fact the board contains an ace, it may not be the best spot to do so.

Turn Action

The turn comes the 7♥, making the board A♠8♣2♦7♥. This card doesn’t change all that much, but it does improve Chris to a double gutter. He checks once again, Yoochan bets $1,500, and Chris makes the call, and the pot grows to $7,650.

Turn Play Analysis

The turn card is largely a blank, especially after some money went into the pot on the flop. The hands that it does improve that would continue on the flop are hands like 8-7 and unlikely A-7, both of which are drawing dead against Yoochan’s set of aces.

In that light, it makes sense his turn bet is relatively small, as he wants to give his opponent good odds and keep him around with one-pair hands, while stronger holdings might take this opportunity to check-raise.

Always know your winning chances with our free poker odds calculator!

Chris could certainly fold here, but now double-gutted and getting a decent price plus some implied odds if he makes his disguised straight, he opts to call, and there is certainly nothing wrong with it.

River Action

The river is the ultimate cooler card as it comes 3♥, making the final runout A♠8♣2♦7♥3♥ and completing the straight for Chris. He checks once again to Yoochan, who bets out for $4,800.

At this moment, there is $12,450 in the pot, and Chris, holding the nuts, goes for a check-raise. After giving it some thought, he goes for all of it, betting $44,000.

Yoochan finds himself in a tough spot now. He has what is the second nuts, but his opponent is signaling tremendous strength. After thinking about it, he manages to find a fold, saving over $40k with this decision!

River Play Analysis

This is an extremely interesting river spot. Chris makes a good check as the board hasn’t changed all that much, so he knows his opponent is likely to continue betting with the entire range, and it certainly looks like Yoochan has a decent hand that he can value bet the river with.

When his opponent does bet, Chris needs to figure out the sizing for his check-raise, and he decides to go for the maximum, betting $44,000 into a $12k pot. This is a huge overbet that pretty much spells “nuts or nothing.”

It is not an easy decision for Yoochan, as he is only losing to a wheel. He needs to figure out two things, namely:

Does his opponent ever do this as a bluff (and what hands he’d turn to a bluff on this river)?
Does Chris ever have any other value hands that he plays this way?

It is really hard to find any reasonable bluffs here, as it is a fairly dry board, and one of two flop draws came in. The other one would be 3-4, but he’d have to know his opponent is very aggressive and capable of making these plays, willing to risk $45k to win $12k.

Plus, if he wanted to bluff with a hand like that, it would make more sense to get in a check-raise on the turn, where he would still have some equity.

With a bluff being extremely unlikely, it gets down to whether he ever does this with another value hand, primarily a set of eights. It is certainly possible, but does he really go for an all-in bet, or would he make a more reasonable raise like $15k – $20k?

Eventually, Yoochan figures things out and makes a great laydown. The fact of the matter is, he only put about $6k in the pot, and unless he believes his opponent is extremely aggressive, folding is the better option.

Of course, this is easier said than done with a top set on this type of a board, so credit where credit is due – it is a world-class fold in a spot where most players would lose their entire stack!