Going for a semi-bluff raise and then hitting your miracle card is one of the best feelings in poker. It not only allows you to win some big pots but can make you feel like a bit of a genius.
However, every now and again, everything seemingly goes your way, and you end up losing a massive pot somehow.
The hand we’ll be looking at today is an example of the latter situation. It comes to us from the Hustler Casino Live stream, featuring Alan Keating and Jeremy ‘JBoogs’ Levin, one of the stream regulars.
Blinds are $100/$200, but there are two straddles in play, $400 and $1,000. Jeremy is the effective stack, starting the hand with around $225,000.
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Preflop Action
The action in this hand starts with the player on the button opening to $4,000. Jeremy looks down at 9♠9♣ in the small blind and 3-bets to $12,000.
Alan Keating, who is in the $1,000 straddle, makes a cold call with K♠10♦, and the original raiser calls for the additional $8,000 with 7♥5♠, and they proceed to the flop with $39,000 in the middle.
Preflop Play Analysis
The button open is standard here, even with a hand like small suited connectors. Although there isn’t much folding happening before the flop, playing in position with deep stacks can be very advantageous, and having the initiative in the pot is important.
For Jeremy in the small blind with his pocket 9s, another player left to act, and in the worst position at the table, 3-betting makes sense. You want to get the pot heads up or potentially pick it up before the flop.
The 3x sizing is fine, but in a fairly wild live game and with deep stacks, it makes sense to go bigger when 3-betting from the small blind. Making it something like $18,000 would discourage light calls.
Facing a raise and a 3-bet, Keating should be folding his hand always, at least from the poker theory perspective. It’s not the kind of a hand that plays well against a strong range, and it also doesn’t have necessary 4-bet properties.
As played, once Keating cold calls, the button player is getting great odds on a call and closing the action, so there isn’t much to analyze there.
Flop Action
The flop comes Q♥Q♣3♣, and the action checks through. With no betting on this street, the pot remains at $39,000.
Flop Play Analysis
On a paired board and facing two callers, Jeremy decides not to fire a continuation bet with his pocket pair. With not many draws to worry about, this is a fine decision that controls the size of the pot and allows other players to bluff at it if they want.
Keating realizes that Jeremy might be checking with some strong hands here, and having completely whiffed the flop, he doesn’t go for it at this point. The button player checks as well, as starting to bluff into two players with zero equity isn’t the best idea.
Turn Action
The turn brings 9♥, making the runout Q♥Q♣3♣9♥ and upgrading Jeremy’s hand to a full house.
He bets out for $12,000 and Keating goes for a raise to $40,000. The button player folds, and Jeremy opts to just call. The pot grows to $119,000.
Turn Play Analysis
Although Jeremy finds a gin card on the turn, he needs to start betting at some point. There are two flush draws on the board now, as well as some straight draws, so there are plenty of hands his opponents can continue with.
The $12,000 bet is reasonable as well. He doesn’t have much to worry about in terms of protection, and he wants all draws to continue. Plus, a smaller sizing could induce a bluff.
That’s exactly what happens, as Keating bumps it up to $40,000 with his gutshot straight draw. He has a decent hand to do it with, as he’s not blocking any of the flush draws his opponent could potentially have, and he can certainly have some queens in his range that he decided to check through on the flop.
When the action gets back to Jeremy, he has a very clear call here. There is no point in raising and preventing Keating from bluffing again (if that’s what he’s doing) or tipping them off about the strength of your hand in those cases where they have trip queens.
River Action
The river brings the J♦, creating the board of Q♥Q♣3♣9♥J♦. This gives Keating his straight while Jeremy’s hand remains unchanged.
Jeremy plays it in flow and checks to Alan, who fires out for $115,000. After a short deliberation, Jeremy settles on just a call, leaving about $60,000 behind. His full house is good, and he rakes in a pot of $349,000.
River Play Analysis
Once a jack comes on the river, especially one of the two jacks not completing either of the two flush draws, Keating absolutely has to go for value.
The way this hand was played, it doesn’t look like Jeremy has a super strong hand, but Alan has a loose image, so he can definitely get away with a big river sizing.
The only question for Jeremy is whether to put the last $60,000 in or just call. A jack on the river isn’t the perfect card because it improves some of Keating’s queens, but with not much left behind, he should probably put the rest in and try to get the maximum value.
Given such good odds, there are probably some weaker hands that Alan would feel compelled to call with, so moving all in is the most +EV play in this spot.
