Craps Probabilities – How Often Does Each Bet Win?

craps probability

3 minutes

Last Updated: April 21, 2024

Understanding craps probabilities helps you make smarter decisions when playing the game. While picking a craps bet with the best probability doesn’t guarantee you a winning outcome, it is an important aspect of responsible gambling that puts you in the best position long term.

With that in mind, we’ve prepared the ultimate guide on craps probabilities that will help you know how often each craps bet wins.

How to Calculate Craps Probabilities?

As craps uses two dice, there are a total of 36 possible combinations. To know the probability of winning a certain bet, you must first recognize the potential outcomes and how their number affects the overall probability percentage. This requires some math, but we’ll use a simple example to help you understand how it works.

For instance, let’s say you want to place the pass line bet. For you to win, the shooter should roll a 7 or 11. If they roll a 2, 3, or 12, you lose the bet. If they roll any other number, the point is established. 

In this case, to win on the first roll without the point being established, the shooter should roll one of the eight possible combinations. Six of these are for a total of 7, which can be made by: 1-6, 2-5, 3-4, 6-1, 5-2, and 4-3. The remaining two are for a total of 11, which can only be made by a 5-6 and 6-5 combination. This means the probability of winning on the first roll is 8/36, or 22.2%.

But what if you don’t win on the first roll? In that case, it’s important to factor in all of the possible combinations after that, as well as the possibilities of rolling any other number. 

In short, the probability of losing on the come-out roll is 11.1%, and the probability of losing after the point is made is 39.6%. Additionally, the probability of winning after the point is made is 27.1%. All of this combined produces a winning probability of 22.2% + 27.1%, or 49.3%. 

In other words, your probability of winning a pass line bet is 49.3%. This percentage automatically determines the probability of the don’t pass bet. To do so, you simply add the number that would make 100%, which in this case is 50.7% of the don’t pass bet.

With all of that said, while it’s good to know how to calculate craps probabilities from scratch, it’s easier just to remember the percentages for each bet. To provide you with direct answers to this, we’ve prepared a complete overview of the winning probabilities for all craps bets:

Craps Bet Winning Probability
Don’t Pass  Bet 50.7%
Don’t Come  Bet 50.7%
Pass Line Bet 49.3%
Come Bet 49.3%
Any 7 Bet 16.67%
Hi-Lo (2 or 12), Yo (11), and 3 Bet 5.6%
Hard 4 / Hard 6 / Hard 8 / Hard 10 2.8%

Craps Probability and Dice Combinations

The number of possible dice combinations directly influences the winning probability. From a logical standpoint, the more ways a number can be made, the higher the probability of rolling that combination will be and winning the bet. Here’s a quick rundown of the possible dice combinations for each number:

Total Number Possible Combinations
12 1 Combination (6–6)
11 2 Combinations (5–6, 6–5)
10 3 Combinations (4–6, 5–5, 6–4)
9 4 Combinations (3–6, 4–5, 5–4, 6–3)
8 5 Combinations (2–6, 3–5, 4–4, 5–3, 6–2)
7 6 Combinations (1–6, 2–5, 3–4, 4–3, 5–2, 6–1)
6 5 Combinations (1–5, 2–4, 3–3, 4–2, 5–1)
5 4 Combinations (1–4, 2–3, 3–2, 4–1)
4 3 Combinations (1–3, 2–2, 3–1)
3 2 Combinations (1–2, 2–1)
2 1 Combination (1–1)

With these numbers in mind, it’s also essential to consider the house edge, which sets a negative expected value for all craps bets. As the odds paid are always less favorable than the true odds, the casino always profits in the long run. 

Moreover, many craps bets have a double-digit house edge, which you should always avoid in favor of bets that offer a lower house edge, such as the pass/come and don’t pass/don’t come bets. This is essential to remember if you want to play with the optimal craps strategy.

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